Predicting an outcome is easy when making like comparisons. Predicting election turnout for the Tuesday, November 5 General Election in Putnam County is not easy because like comparisons are not possible.

Early voting for this year’s Presidential Election cannot be compared to early voting in the last Presidential Election. The 2020 election early voting and election day voting numbers were distorted by the large number of mail-in ballots. The 2020 General Election saw a large number of absentee ballots because of the COVID pandemic. The first five days of early voting this year’s election cannot be compared to the same numbers which were registered in 2020.

That said, it is still possible to project a very high turnout on November 5 based upon the first five days of early voting (Oct. 23-26 and Oct. 28). Putnam County Clerk Brian Wood reported 6,921 early voters during the period. Wood stated that typically early voting is heaviest on the first day of the early voting period and on the last three days of the period with the first five day totals and the second five day totals being about the same. In 2020, there were 11,328 early voters during the ten-day period. In 2020, there were around 5,000 mail-in ballots. This 5,000 consists approximately 4,200 voters who would have voted early or upon election day. The balance of in-person voting to early voting suggests that the 2020 early voting total was suppressed by 1,900. If 2020 had not been influenced by COVID, there would have been 13,228 early vote ballot cast in the ten-day period. The first five days of early voting for 2020 would have been half of that number, 6,614. The 6,912 which were recorded this year is 4.5% higher the projected 6,614 in 2020.

The turnout of registered voters in Putnam County in 2020 was 71.5%. The math, based upon 2020 numbers, projects a Putnam voter turnout of 74.7% on November 5. The 71.5% turnout in Putnam for the 2020 General Election is the highest in the modern era. We will know if 71.5% remains highest come November 6.