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Predicting Turnout for the May Primary Election

Come Tuesday, May 12, the vote will be counted and the May Primary will be history. Turnout is expected to be low because it is an off-year election. There will be no candidates seeking the office of President on the ballot.

Voter turnout is, historically, much lower for the May Primary in off-year elections. Voter turnout in the last off-year Primary (2022) was 22.9% statewide and 22.8% in Putnam County.
Turnout is driven by voter interest. Competitive races are more interesting. Putnam voters, regardless of party affiliation, will elect three members to the Board of Education. In 2022, the Primary Election ballot featured five candidates seeking the three seats. This year, seven candidates are seeking election to the three seats.

Candidates, both the Republican and Democrats, will be selected to have their names placed on the General Election ballot in November. Candidates with Putnam County residency will be selected for the 4th Senatorial District; the 19th, 20th, and 21st House of Delegate Districts; the County Commission (Magisterial District 3); and unexpired term for County Commission (Magisterial District 1).

In 2022, the Republican ballot listed five contested races and the Democratic ballot, one race. This year, there are three contested Republican races and zero Democratic races.

City of Hurricane voter turnout maybe influenced by the presence of a continuing special levy which must be renewed every five years.

Putnam County Clerk Brian Wood reported that 188 residents cast ballots on the first day of Early Voting, April 29. WV Secretary of State Kris Warner issued a news release stating that 4,858 residents statewide participated in early voting on April 29. Putnam’s 188 is 0.33% of the county population. The statewide number of 4,858 is 0.33% of West Virginia’s total population.

The first day Early Vote numbers, coupled with the similarity of contested races in 2022 and 2026, suggest that the turnout for both the county and the state will be between 20 and 25%.

The Breeze does not endorse any candidate or predict winners. That said, the most competitive race in 2022, that for the six-year term for county commission, was determined by anti-incumbent voting. The 2022 Board of Education winners were incumbents or candidates supported by incumbents. The 2026 winners will, likewise, be determined by voter favor or disfavor of incumbency.

The winners for the Board of Education will likely be the top three finishers. Only two members can serve from a district. There are five candidates from Magisterial District 2. In the event that the three top vote getters are from District 2, the 4th place finisher would be awarded a seat on the Board.

Sample ballots for Republican and Democratic parties and non-affiliated voters can be found on Pages 8-10.

Comparing 2022 with 2026
County Commission — District 1 [Republican]
2022 – (Six-year term) Steve Deweese, Ron Foster, Edward Absten, and Todd Dillon
2026 – (Unexpired term) Wesley Lee Landers, Mike Stone, Zach Crede, and Doug Pierson
Circuit Clerk [Republican]
2022 – Stephanie Smith, Michael Thompson, Donald Lee Underwood, and Mike Reynolds
2026 – not on ballot
Board of Education
2022 – five candidates seeking election to three seats (Brad Hodges, Rosalee Juba-Plumley, Wade Neal, Rob Cunningham, Melissa Oxley)
2026 – seven candidates seeking election to three seats (Connie Breck, Brad Hodges, Sarah Brown, Karen Dillard, Tammy Sowards, Jake Fertig, William”Butch” Legg)
4th State Senate District (Republican)
2022 – Eric Tarr (unopposed)
2026 – Eric Tarr, Phillip Surface, and Travis Willard
House of Delegates 19th District (Republican)
2022 – Jesse Lovejoy, Kathie Hess Crouse, and Nick Withrow
2026 – Kathie Hess Crouse (unopposed)
House of Delegates 19th District (Democratic)
2022 – Seth King and Josh Martin
2026 – Nolan Rose (unopposed)
House of Delegates 20th District (Republican)
2022 – Jacob Losh and Geoff Foster
2026 – Sarah Drennan (unopposed)
House of Delegates 21st District (Republican)
2022 – Brenden D. Long, Michael Kidd, and Jarred Cannon
2026 – Michael Kidd, and C. D. Caldwell

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